Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction, Lineups & Score Forecast , Round 22 La Liga

The La Liga Round 22 fixture between Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano will be played at the iconic Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, with kick-off scheduled for 18:30 IST on Sunday, 1 February 2026. Real Madrid enter the derby firmly in the title race, sitting second in the table with the league’s most potent attack. Rayo Vallecano, meanwhile, hover just above the relegation zone in 16th but boast underlying numbers that suggest they have been unlucky—ranking 9th in xG while underperforming expected points by nearly eight. With cool conditions forecast (8°C), this Madrid derby promises intensity, pressing battles, and contrasting game plans. Match Overview – Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Category Details Fixture Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Competition La Liga Round Round 22 Date & Kick-Off Sunday, 1 February 2026 – 18:30 IST Venue Santiago Bernabéu Stadium Location Madrid, Spain Capacity 83,186 Surface Grass Weather 8°C – Cool Match Insight: Rayo Vallecano sit 16th in the table but rank 9th in the xG standings, underperforming expected points by around –8, highlighting their inefficiency in both boxes. Season So Far Comparison – Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Statistic Real Madrid Rayo Vallecano League Position 2nd 16th Wins 16 5 Draws 3 7 Losses 2 9 Goals Scored 45 17 Avg Goals per Match 2.14 0.81 Avg Goals Conceded 0.81 1.33 xG (Expected Goals) 49.8 28.6 xG per 90 2.22 1.36 Clean Sheets 10 6 Madrid’s dominance is reflected not only in results but also in elite xG numbers, while Rayo’s low goal return contrasts sharply with their chance creation. Recent Form Guide – Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Real Madrid – Last 5 Matches (All Competitions) Date Opponent Competition Result Score 28/01 Benfica (A) Champions League Loss 2–4 24/01 Villarreal (A) La Liga Win 2–0 20/01 Monaco (H) Champions League Win 6–1 17/01 Levante (H) La Liga Win 2–0 14/01 Albacete (A) Cup Loss 2–3 Rayo Vallecano – Last 5 La Liga Matches Date Opponent Venue Result Score 24/01 Osasuna Home Loss 1–3 18/01 Celta Vigo Away Loss 0–3 14/01 Alavés Away Loss 0–2 11/01 Mallorca Home Win 2–1 06/01 Granada Away Win 3–1 Head-to-Head – Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano All-Time Meetings Statistic Real Madrid Rayo Vallecano Wins 15 2 Draws 4 4 Recent Head-to-Head Results Date Competition Home Team Score Away Team 09 Nov 2025 La Liga Rayo Vallecano 0–0 Real Madrid 09 Mar 2025 La Liga Real Madrid 2–1 Rayo Vallecano 15 Dec 2024 La Liga Rayo Vallecano 3–3 Real Madrid 18 Feb 2024 La Liga Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Real Madrid 06 Nov 2023 La Liga Real Madrid 0–0 Rayo Vallecano Top Scorers to Watch Real Madrid: Kylian Mbappé – 21 goals, 4 assists (20 matches) Rayo Vallecano: Jorge de Frutos – 6 goals, 1 assist (19 matches) Mbappé has been devastating in front of goal this season, while De Frutos remains Rayo’s main attacking outlet. Predicted Lineups – Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Real Madrid (4-1-2-3) Thibaut Courtois – Federico Valverde, Raúl Asencio, Dean Huijsen, Álvaro Carreras – Aurélien Tchouaméni – Arda Güler, Jude Bellingham – Rodrygo, Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior Rayo Vallecano (4-3-3) Augusto Batalla – Andrei Rațiu, Florian Lejeune, Nobel Mendy, Pep Chavarría – Isi Palazón, Pathé Ciss, Pedro Díaz – Ilias Akhomach, Jorge de Frutos, Álvaro García Unavailable Players Team Players Out Real Madrid Antonio Rüdiger, Éder Militão, Ferland Mendy, Trent Alexander-Arnold Rayo Vallecano Abdul Mumin, Iván Balliu Statistical Projection – Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Metric Real Madrid Rayo Vallecano Win Probability 68% 10% Draw Probability 22% — Expected Possession 60–65% 35–40% Shots on Target 6–8 2–3 Expected Goals (xG) 2.2–2.6 0.8–1.1 Clean Sheet Probability 45% 20% Most Likely Scorer Mbappé De Frutos ✅ Final Score Prediction Real Madrid 3–0 Rayo Vallecano Likely Scorers Kylian Mbappé (2) Vinícius Júnior Madrid’s attacking firepower, home advantage, and title motivation point toward a comfortable victory, even if Rayo’s xG numbers suggest they may be more competitive than their league position implies. Confidence Levels Real Madrid Win: 68% Draw: 22% Rayo Vallecano Win: 10% Read More:- Pisa vs Sassuolo Prediction, Lineups & Score Forecast ,Round 23 Serie A Man United vs Fulham Prediction, Lineups & Score Forecast , Round 24 Premier League Liverpool vs Newcastle Prediction, Lineups & Score Forecast , Round 24 Premier League Suggested Tips (Informational Only) Real Madrid to Win Over 2.5 Total Goals Real Madrid Clean Sheet: Yes Anytime Scorer: Kylian Mbappé ⚠️ All predictions are for informational purposes only. Betting involves risk—please play responsibly. FAQs – Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano 1.What time is Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano? Kick-off is at 18:30 IST on Sunday, 1 February 2026. 2.Where is the match being played? At the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid, Spain. 3.Who are the key players to watch? Kylian Mbappé for Real Madrid and Jorge de Frutos for Rayo Vallecano. 4.What is the predicted score? A 3–0 home win for Real Madrid.